Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales (CEPII)
113, rue de Grenelle
75007 Paris, FRANCE

  I am currently an economist at CEPII, a French research center in international economics based in Paris, FRANCE.

New Papers
Publications Social Media Other Writings
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New Papers

Do Uncertainty Shocks Always Matter for Business Cycles? (2016) with F. Tripier
[Local copy]  [CEPII Working Paper]
The answer to the title question is no. Fitting a Markov-switching structural vector autoregression to U.S. data, we show that uncertainty affects real economy di fferentially depending on the state of financial markets; e.g., an adverse shock that causes a 10 percentage points increase in the VIX index implies a one percent output decline in a regime of financial stress, but e ffects that are close to zero in tranquil regime. We use this evidence to estimate key parameters of a business cycle model, in which agents are aware of the possibility of regime switches in the transmission mechanism. We show that the diff erences in dynamics across regimes do not only result from changes in the degree of  financial frictions, but also on agents' expectations around these changes. Pessimistic expectations about future financial conditions amplify contractionary eff ects of uncertainty shocks on aggregate activity.

Financial intermediaries' Instability and Euro Area Macroeconomic Dynamics
European Economic Review (forthcoming)
[Local copy]  [Online appendix]  [Link to Journal]  [Program and data files]
Fitting a Markov-switching structural vector autoregression to euro area data, we show that, after taking into account heteroskedasticity, the differences in the behavior of the economy between tranquil and financial distress periods (e.g., Great Recession and sovereign debt crisis) reflect variations in the transmission mechanism. When and only when a period of financial distress occurs, disruptions in financial intermediation trigger adverse effects for the real economy and turn out to be the primary source of business cycle fluctuations. Finally, we provide strong evidence that ECB interventions in the financial sector had beneficial effects on the real economy during the sovereign debt crisis.

The Regime-switching Volatility of Euro Area Business Cycles
Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming)
[Local copy]
  [CEPII Working Paper]  [Link to Journal]  [Program and data files]
We document the strong evidence of time variation in the volatility of euro area business cycles since 1970. Then, we provide the quantitative sources of these changes by using a medium-scale DSGE model allowing time variation in structural disturbance variances. We show that: 1) The size of diff erent types of shock oscillates, in a synchronized manner, between two regimes over time, with the high-volatility regime prevailing predominantly in the 1970s, sporadically in the 1980s and 1990s, and during the Great Recession. 2) Their relative importance remains, however, unchanged across regimes, where neutral technology shocks and marginal efficiency of investment shocks are the dominant sources of business cycle fluctuations; and 3) These investment shocks, which aff ect the transformation of savings into productive capital, can be interpreted as an indicator of credit conditions.

On the Stability of Calvo-style Price-Setting Behavior with M. Zabelina
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2015)
[Local copy]  [Online appendix]  [Link to Journal]  [Program and data files]
An increasing literature has been concerned that the dynamics of the economy keeps switching and that, in particular, it is important to allow time variation in the degree of Calvo stickiness. We investigate this with a Markov-switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model and show that there is little gain when allowing for such time variation. As a result we recommend to use a constant Calvo stickiness parameter, even when allowing for regime shifts elsewhere.

Social Media

The effects of Trumpian uncertainty on U.S. economy with F. Tripier
[english version] [french version]
January 25, 2017

Should we fear the Brexit uncertainty? IMF versus Krugman  with F. Tripier

[english version] [french version] [LaTribune.fr]
August 19, 2016

Le changement de stratégie d'exit de la Fed devrait profiter aux pays émergents avec A. Cheysson et F. Tripier
[french version] [LaTribune.fr]
June 20, 2016

Through the lenses of the natural rate of interest, European monetary policy appears to be too loose since 2015
[english version] [french version] [LaTribune.fr]
May 27, 2016

Business Cycles in Europe since 1970
[english version] [french version]
December 10, 2015

The exit from the U.S. zero interest-rate policy should be done gradually  with F. Tripier
[english version] [french version] [LaTribune.fr]
September 22, 2015

Back to the Great Moderation? 
[english version] [french version] [LaTribune.fr]
April 30, 2015

January 24, 2015

Other Writings

L'impact du resserement monétaire américain sur les économies émergentes avec A. Cheysson et F. Tripier
La Lettre du CEPII
[version française] [interactive website]
June, 2016

Last modified: 06/26/2017 03:11:00